WEATHER & FIRE BEHAVIOR
Ruidoso, New Mexico, May 2, 2021- Dan Pearson, Three Rivers Fire Behavior Analyst, is responsible for collecting weather data, predicting fire growth, and developing strategic and tactical fire behavior information. He looks at the interaction of topography, fuels, and weather to determine what the fire’s effects will be. All this critical information is used by incident managers to formulate a strategic plan of attack on the fire.
When the fire started, it was driven by powerful winds, low relative humidity, and high temperatures. A reconnaissance flight indicated the fire had stayed along the mountain crest and upper third of the slopes. The prevailing winds made a push sending embers to the trees downwind and into the surrounding areas.
The following day, April 27, a weather system came through, which raised the relative humidity, increased cloud cover, and provided precipitation that stopped the fire from burning in the grasses.
With the precipitation that we have seen over the last couple of days, little smoke is currently being seen. However, this reconnaissance flight was taken at 11:00 am yesterday, while most active fire occurs from 1:00 pm – 4:00 pm. An additional reconnaissance flight will be taken to identify any areas that may not have been visible on the initial flight.
Not everything within the fire perimeter has burned. Grasses and some areas of timber remain unaffected with a mosaic of green vegetation. Now that the weather has cleared, much of the fire perimeter is easily accessible allowing firefighters to continue to fight the fire. Other areas that are challenging and unsafe for firefighters to access will continue to be monitored and plans are being developed to address areas of concern.
Relative humidity in the 8-12 percent range and winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are forecast across the fire for Sunday afternoon. Fire weather conditions moderate on Monday as the system passes over the fire from the west, and a cool front pushes in from the north. Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler, and not as dry. Increasing clouds are expected, and even some passing showers or thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon. Wednesday, through the rest of the week, high pressure builds over the Southwestern U.S. bringing warmer and drier conditions, with marginally breezy afternoons typical of the season.
It is important to note that there are still areas of combustion and potential of smoke. It is possible with Red Flag conditions today that the weather could potentially stir up smoldering fires. There might be some movement of the fire as it continues to consume unburned vegetation within the perimeter. Additional smoke is predicted, and with the southwest winds, the public may see and smell smoke, especially in the northeast area of Ruidoso. Firefighters are prepared for this increase in fire activity.
A closure order has been issued for a portion of the White Mountains Wilderness, located in the Smokey Bear Ranger District of the Lincoln National Forest. The purpose of this Order is to protect public health and safety during the Three Rivers Fire. The Order went into effect on April 30, 2021, at 6:00 AM and shall remain in effect until December 31, 2021, or until rescinded, whichever occurs first.
Please be advised that ALL National Forest System lands, roads, and trails within the exterior boundaries of the White Mountain Wilderness of the Lincoln National Forest, as depicted on the attached map, are part of the RESTRICTED AREA.
Violations of this order are punishable as a Class B misdemeanor by a fine of up to $5,000 for individuals, $10,000 for organizations, or by imprisonment, or both.
For additional information pertaining to the Closure Order contact the Smokey Bear Ranger District at 575-257-4096 or the Lincoln National Forest Supervisor’s Office at 575-434-7200. For Three Rivers Fire information, please contact the fire information line at 575-386-5077.